Cyber Scene #30 - Cyber Takes First

Cyber Scene #30

Cyber Takes First

Kilobytes on the Starboard Bow?

The 29 January Worldwide Threat Assessment briefing by the Directors of National Intelligence (DNI), the National Security Agency (NSA), the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) before our old friend, the Senate Select Committee for Intelligence (SSCI) underscores the significance of defining "threat." Chairman Richard Burr (R- NC) described the weaponization of cyber platforms regarding Russia's attempts at US destabilization. DNI Coats also addressed this in his opening statement, during which he noted the "valued relationship" with the SSCI, differing slightly in a more relaxed tone from his more formal statement for the record, and echoed concern about the 2020 elections. The unclassified version of the assessment in its written form (hyperlinked above) begins threat discussion with cyber, and even as the quartet of "most usual suspects" is once again China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, the weapon of choice is neither sword nor nuke. As was much reported in the press (e.g., see David Sanger's "New Kind of Intelligence Test" NYT 2/12 for the "story behind the story"), cyber threats are placed No. #1 on the (literal) hit parade.

Lawfare also offers a balanced, pre-digested version of the 2 1/2 hr testimony for "executive summary" readers, While the Harvard voice may have a Bostonian/judicial accent, the message is consistent with the delivery by the IC chiefs, the understanding of the SSCI members, and the New York Times team perspective.
 
Swords to Kilobytes (Plowshares Need Not Apply)

There remains a high cost regarding the cyber threat. Data as the "coin of the realm," to cite NSA's Gen. Nakasone's SSCI testimony captured by CSPAN (see above), has a tactile side well beyond the application of electrical grid take-downs, denial of service, financial disruption, and a litany of other attacks. Ranking Member Mark Warner (D-VA) implied that underestimating the cyber threat is perilous in expressing the Senate's condolences for the loss of two cyber-related victims from NSA and DIA respectively, killed in an attack in Syria on 16 January.
 
World War 5 (G): Going Out for Chinese or "China as the Unifier"

Assuming a devilish pose, David Brooks in his op-ed (NYT 2/14) looks at China from the bright side: "I've always thought Americans would come together when we realized that we faced a dangerous foreign foe. And lo and behold, now we have one: China." He outlined trade violations, repressive internal regime crackdowns, intellectual property theft ($225-$600M/yr per former DNI Adm. Dennis Blair and former Amb. Jon Huntsman for 2017) and seizing control of the world economy, inter alia. Most of the above is done courtesy of cyber, as China attempts to implement "Made in China 2025" and "dominate high-tech industries like aerospace, robotics and biotech." He cites hacking, "espionage, and thuggery" as some of the options in the Chinese tool box. He also cites Sen. Marco Rubio's (R-FL) compelling report on the inescapable need to take decisions on US industrial policy.
 
Toward a World-Wide Ring Road?

Cyber Scene has discussed before, through Richard Engel's eyes in Patagonia (December 2018 Cyber Scene), the resurrection of the cyberspace view of the "Road," but with China playing Marco Polo. The New York Times Magazine now looks intensely at the Kazakhstan piece of the "Son of Silk" Belt and Road implementation. The Belt and Road undertaking, however, differs philosophically from its ancient origins. The author explains: "The ancient Silk Road was equal parts trade route and social network. The routes themselves were in constant flux and administered by no one, and they succeeded through incremental growth and local knowledge in response to changing needs--the exact opposite of the Ozymandian ambitions and sweeping autocratic statecraft that characterize the Belt and Road."(Ozymandias is Greek for Ramesses II and for you poets, a sonnet by P.B. Shelley.) Note that the Belt and Road initiative is global. Think kilobytes, not camels. To cite an earlier Cyber Scene, the esteemed David Lampton, Professor Emeritus of China Studies at the Johns Hopkins Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), stated that China says it has had a few bad centuries, but is making a comeback...a very understated aspiration.

US National Security Strategy: in Peace and in War

So how is the US doing in response to, if not ideally ahead of the game? Most discussion is behind classified doors such as the above-referenced SSCI closed hearing following the open one by the Intelligence Community chiefs. The National War College (NWC), however, has recently engaged outside academics to present an unclassified discussion of this subject entitled "Bytes, Bombs and Spies"--also the book title of two of the guest authors. It is uncharacteristically viewable by all Cyber Scene readers courtesy of CSPAN's very first coverage of a National War College presentation on 30 January at NWC. The school was founded out of the lack of communication and understanding not only across the WWII services, but between the military and diplomats, thanks to George C. Marshall, Dwight D. Eisenhower, and George "Mr. X" Kennan in 1946. (Alums include John McCain, James Mattis, Martin Dempsey, scores of ambassadors and four-star general officers as well as some IC directors.) The two authors who hail from Stanford's Hoover Institution were accompanied by two cyber academics from George Washington University, one having been a member of President Obama's Cyber Commission. Together they examined offensive cyber operations as an instrument of national power, just as military, economic, diplomatic and informational (to include intelligence) tools are used separately and together. The speakers delved into issues including the need for persistent, ubiquitous, and tailored coverage in a global age. Next step: over to the policy community.

Progress?

So as the New York Times speaks of the US "scramble to outrun China in the new arms race" in the struggle with Huawei's role in the 5G future, the US is not only working with Canada (see the prior Cyber Scene discussion) but also the UK, Poland, Germany, and yes, NATO (rhetoric does not equal reality). The stakes are high. David Sanger and colleagues go on to quote Agence France-Presse Fred Dufour saying "Both the United States and China believe that whichever country dominates 5G will gain an economic, intelligence and military edge for much of this century."

Ship USS Cyber has reasonably lost some wind in its sail for that starboard bow volley according to Wired, given the US Government shutdown which has kept some of the workforce in greater catch-up mode despite the compliments from the SSCI Senators in applauding the workforce of the Intelligence Community for working without pay for five weeks (see CSPAN coverage in first paragraph). The cyber threat has indeed been assessed by not only the IC chiefs, but by the tens of thousands of their workforce. A more recent New York Times article by Nicole Perlroth indicates that additional hacking of US networks has been traced to China and Iran. Catching up is a moving target.

Meanwhile, Time magazine has some suggestions on "how to restore dignity to technology and design tools to set right what has gone wrong online" on a personal level.

And Bill Gates (TIME February 18) writes in "What this Legendary Artist Can Teach Us About Innovation" that he works daily with people who are brilliant and passionate, like Leonardo da Vinci, and capable of "turning their knowledge into big breakthroughs that make our lives better." 

On that optimistic note, over to you, readers!