Traditional risk assessment process based on knowledge of threat occurrence probability against every system’s asset. One should consider asset placement, applied security measures on asset and network levels, adversary capabilities and so on: all of that has significant influence on probability value. We can measure threat probability by modelling complex attack process. Such process requires creating an attack tree, which consist of elementary attacks against different assets and relations between elementary attacks and impact on influenced assets. However, different attack path may lead to targeted impact – so task of finding optimal attack chain on a given system topology emerges. In this paper method for complex attack graph creation presented, allowing automatic building various attack scenarios for a given system. Assuming that exploits of particular vulnerabilities represent by independent events, we can compute the overall success probability of a complex attack as the product of the success probabilities of exploiting individual vulnerabilities. This assumption makes it possible to use algorithms for finding the shortest paths on a directed graph to find the optimal chain of attacks for a given adversary’s target.

2022 Ural-Siberian Conference on Biomedical Engineering, Radioelectronics and Information Technology (USBEREIT)