Modeling emergent behavior in cyberspace to anticipate cyber threats

The concept of "emergence", as used in modern science, usually refers to the complex behaviors that emerge from dynamic interactions between simple entities. Modeling emergent behavior in cyberspace can have a game-changing impact in the fight against cybercrime. The end of the 20th and beginning of the 21st Century have seen computers and networks permeate life and science, and embed us all into a new, strikingly complex system of computational networks. Such developments have broached groundbreaking advancements in the way we interact with infrastructure, institutions and other people, but have also created new vulnerabilities. Due to the ever growing complexity of computer networks, cyber threats quickly evolve so as to constantly present novel challenges. Simulating scenarios that embody the emergence of such challenges is the first step to developing a truly anticipatory approach to cyber defense. Several algorithms have been proposed to simulate emergence using as reference processes occurring in nature such as the flocking behavior of birds and the swarming behavior of insects. Some of these algorithms have been utilized to model cyber emergence with promising results.



Further progress depends on how successfully we can address unresolved issues such as the following:

·     Which are the best algorithms and natural-process metaphors to model cyber emergence?

·     How do we harvest and calibrate evidence to inform models of cyber emergence?

·     How do we test the validity models of cyber emergence?

The purpose of the emergence track at the C3E Workshop is to discuss these and related issues to achieve a better understanding of how to model emergent behavior in cyberspace to anticipate cyber threats.