Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk
This paper presents a critique of expected utility theory as a descriptive model of decision making under risk, and develops an alternative model, called prospect theory. Choices among risky prospects exhibit several pervasive effects that are inconsistent with the basic tenets of utility theory. In particular, people underweight outcomes that are merely probable in comparison with outcomes that are obtained with certainty. This tendency, called the certainty effect, contributes to risk aversion in choices involving sure gains and to risk seeking in choices involving sure losses.
Technosocial Predictive Analytics in Support of Naturalistic Decision Making
Abstract
Motivation – Anticipate outcomes through predictive and proactive reasoning across domains as diverse as energy, security, the environment, health and finance in order to maximize opportunities and counter adversities.